Rematches are not uncommon in the world of mixed martial arts. When a fighter sticks around the organization for a significant amount of time, you can be assured they’ll be scheduled to battle an opponent they have already faced at some point or another. On top of this, most dominant winners will constantly have a rematch or two solely because of running out of new opponents to confront in their weight class.
Whenever these rematches occur, just how do you bet them? In the event you bet about the fighter that won the fight? Is your underdog the perfect play? That’s a question I wished to answer so that I brought up some information on the topic.
Since UFC 1, when boxers have confronted each other for a duplicate bout, the winner of the prior fight has gone 71-43-3 in the rematch. This usually means the former winner is successful in 62??percent??of rematch??struggles.
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So as to use these amounts to our entire benefit as bettors, we will need to dive right into them a little bit deeper. Our database for battle odds goes back into 2012, so we’ll use from then until current day (August 9,??2019) as our sample size for favorites and underdogs.
Whoever who won the very first fight walked??into the rematch because of gambling favorite??36??times out of a total of 60??rematches because 2012, winning 28??of those fights (77.7??percent??win rate).
While that is a very high win rate, the gain from these fights isn’t quite as large as you might??imagine given that the simple fact that a decent portion of the fighters??would’ve been favorites with a significant margin. $100 bettors would have walked away with a gain of $377.64??if they kindly wager about the fighter who won the previous bout when they were recorded as the favorite??at the second battle all 36??times this happened.
The most significant (and rewarding ) statistic I discovered was that the fighter that won the first bout??won 14??out of 24??rematches if they had been recorded as a underdog, giving $100 bettors a gain of $1,013.46.
All in all, since 2012,??should you bet $100 in the boxer who won the very first battle when they competed at a rematch, you would have gained a profit of 1,391.10.
History tends to repeat itself, and UFC rematches aren’t any exception to this rule.
Bettors can look at UFC 210 as an prime example of that as Daniel Cormier went into his rematch with Anthony Johnson as a +115 underdog even though winning his first fight. He won in lopsided fashion through second-round submission. Rose Namajunas was likewise an underdog in EVEN money going into her UFC 223 rematch with Joanna Jedrzejczyk and went on to win in a convincing unanimous choice.
While the figures reveal that gambling on the fighter who won the very first fight when they rematch a competition is profitable, the entire reverse can clearly be said about betting on fighters at a rematch bout who dropped the very first competition.
Favorites in rematches when they dropped the first battle are 10-14, dropping $100 bettors that a total of $926.21.
Underdogs in rematches when they dropped the first battle are 8-28, dropping $100 bettors a total of $979.
To put these gambling statistics into terms as simple as possible, you’ll feel safe betting onto a fighter once they take on someone whom they’ve already beaten. Whether they are listed as favorites or maybe not, you will gradually acquire a profit long term executing this approach.
Not all rematches are created equal. There are a number of fights that never should be scrapped a second??time, or even a third??time in certain instances *ahem*BJ Penn vs Frankie Edgar*ahem*.
To take these conflicts out of this equation, for interest’s sake??I wanted to consider the amounts when taking ONLY title fights under account. For the struggle to fall under this group, the very first struggle and the rematch had??to have been for the buckle.
The all-time album for the last winner heading right into a title fight rematch is 25-10.
Since 2012, past winners in battles for the title are 17-3, netting $100 bettors a gain of $725.20.
These numbers clearly do nothing but further the point that betting on the preceding winner heading right into a rematch is a intelligent play, so don’t hesitate to apply this approach moving ahead in the event that you want to win some money.
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