This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight card at Florida. DraftKings has some solid competitions for us to acquire a great deal of money from this week. The most important GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of $120k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first place price and $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 entries that match. I will attempt to receive my 2nd seat this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers, so be careful chasing those too hard. I will likely stick to the top GPP this week and throw 50-100 entrances at that $25k prize, then I will likely take a few shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a fantastic amount of drama into cash games.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Money Game play of this week — Roosevelt Roberts — $9,500
I expect Roberts to be the much better fighter anywhere this fight goes. I believe Gifford’s best shot at a win would be locking a guillotine. Aside from that, I think we’ve got a fairly safe win here with Roberts and that is what I am looking for. I need the safer wins in cash and I will worry about who’s going to score the greatest in GPPs. I believe we could eliminate him at the GPPs at his cost because when he sets up 90 DK points in a win then won’t win 25k. It helps us win in money games though and I would be surprised if he had a low scoring win . I believe he’s good for 80-100 points here and I’m totally ok with that in my cash lineup.
GPP play of the week — Greg Hardy- $9,300
Hardy is the GPP play of this week and he’s the highest ITD chances on the card at -222. This is a setup fight for him to receive a knockout and I believe this is quite likely going to take place in the very first round. That should put Hardy over 100 things and I am interested in that. Hardy is going to be among my top plays of this week, but he’s GPP only for me. We can’t trust him sufficient for money games, so that’s why I enjoy Roberts more in that arrangement. I do think Hardy can outscore Roberts though if they both win, and he’s $200 cheaper. That may knock Roberts off the very best lineup and even with high ownership we can win that $25k with Hardy in our lineup as long as he receives the early KO. Hardy wins in round 1 is strung in -130 and that is too great for me to pass in GPPs.
Underdog drama of this week — Glover Teixeira — $7,900
Teixeira is no more the underdog on the betting line (-120) but DraftKings salaries don’t change as soon as they’re released. We receive Teixeira here for 400 less costly than Cutelaba and he’s preferred to get the win. In addition, I think he can win in the 1st round with a score and submission over 90 points. That would give him a fantastic chance at being on the perfect lineup. I’ll be targeting both sides of the struggle in GPPs since I do not expect it to go all 3 rounds, but value on Teixeira is exactly what I enjoy the most and we have to have”underdogs” in our DK lineups together with the $50k salary cap. I think the clear path to victory for Glover is on the floor and that is what I anticipate his game must be. I enjoy him to find a submission win if he is able to land takedowns and he’ll be one of my highest owned underdogs this week.
Fade of this week — Carla Esparza ($8,200)
I understand folks were expecting me to place Angela Hill as my fade at $9.4k. She is a strong fade as well… However, I am going with Esparza as my fade this week and that I will have zero lineups including her. In general, Esparza is a good wrestler and we enjoy wrestlers in DraftKings. I just don’t see wrestling in her very best interest against Jandiroba and I believe she uses her wrestling in shield to attempt and keep this battle on the feet. Each of the danger is on the floor in this matchup and Carla gets the better boxing of the two. I think she could win a 30-27 striking decision but that won’t score highly, and I’d guess it puts up around ~60 DK points. That is not going to cut it 8.2k so I just don’t see how she ends up on the 25k lineup this week even if she does win, and that’s why she’s my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight about the card and give my complete DraftKings evaluation, as well as all my pick predictions, you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link as well. I am 69-44 for +224.83u (+$22,483) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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