This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card in Brazil. DraftKings has some strong competitions for us to acquire a lot of cash from this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy and $30k belongs to 1st place with a total of $150k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier only competition for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first place cost and $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. I will attempt to receive my 3rd chair this week to maximum it if I could. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers, so be careful chasing those too hard. I’ll probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw a handful of entries at the $30k prize, then I will likely have a few shots in the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a good amount of drama into cash games.
With that said, let us get to a couple plays I enjoy this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of this week — Raoni Barcelos — $9,600
Barcelos is the cash game play on for me . On the gambling line he is now -1100 and he is -206 to acquire ITD. He is also +110 to win in round 1. He is my favorite play on the plank, the sole issue is being able to afford him. For cash games, I can for sure fit him in. For GPPs it’s going to be more difficult to get 6 wins paying up for his huge salary, but I like him there as well. I simply won’t make it a priority for him into these championship lineups, but money I need that -1100 in my team for a safe win.
GPP play of the week — Ryan Spann — $8,800
This is a battle I’d like to target. My favorite play is Spann however Little Nog is in play as well. The best thing for FDGTD is -280 and that I think Spann could win via KO or sub, and it might be 1st round too. I think he could compete with the $9k fighters and he is a man that kicks them off the 1st place lineup. Little Nog is the better boxer though and Spann doesn’t have a great chin himself, so that I really could see Nog winning through KO. I don’t think that is likely, so I will not be heavy on himbut he can make my player pool. Spann is a guy I think is in play in most formats and I will attempt to be overweight on him. It’s more of a grin on Small Nog at this point, but I really don’t see this fight going all 3-rounds and that I enjoy Spann to find the win.
Underdog drama of the week — Alex Volkanovski — $7,800
On DraftKings, I anticipate Volkanovski to be quite chalky and rightfully so. He’s my favorite play in this fight and his previous scores pretty much make him a man you can not fade if you are MMEing. I really don’t see him having the ceiling that he did in his previous fights vs Aldo, but these numbers are hard to dismiss. His 6 UFC wins have each totaled over 100 DK points. From most recent struggle to his introduction, all these are his DK scores: 107, 100, 129, 116, 107, and 115. That’s pretty amazing. I think he has a fantastic chance of upsetting the legend here and possibly getting an end for another score. I don’t think Aldo is a fantastic matchup for him to demonstrate that 100+ point ceiling but at $7.8k we don’t require that lots of points. I believe IF he wins, he easily pays off that wages.
Fade of this week — Luana Carolina — $8,900
There is absolutely no way I’m paying 8.9k for Carolina. She’s the fade of this week and if it disturbs me afterward it disturbs me. I really don’t see that being true though even if she wins. I expect this fight to stay standing and that I really don’t see her striking at a speed to pay off her cost without obtaining a finish. I don’t believe she gets that complete so even if she wins I think she scores closer to 75 DK points and at her salary which won’t end up on the perfect lineup. Even if I make 150 lineups this week I won’t get any exposure to Carolina.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle about the card and provide my complete DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, then you can find that for just $7.99 on this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link too. I am 76-45 for +260.95 (+$26,095) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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